Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.017298 0.019582 0.022058 0.024940 0.028204 0.031788 0.036023
2025-09-07 0.013852 0.017034 0.020777 0.025508 0.031334 0.038283 0.047211
2025-09-14 0.011349 0.014765 0.019016 0.024700 0.032112 0.041467 0.054202
2025-09-21 0.009772 0.013314 0.017927 0.024384 0.033211 0.044883 0.061543
2025-09-28 0.008417 0.011933 0.016697 0.023637 0.033517 0.047120 0.067352
2025-10-05 0.007864 0.011556 0.016740 0.024569 0.036130 0.052641 0.078132
2025-10-12 0.007304 0.011089 0.016580 0.025148 0.038234 0.057556 0.088421
2025-10-19 0.006844 0.010710 0.016489 0.025786 0.040434 0.062742 0.099527
2025-10-26 0.006258 0.010072 0.015936 0.025638 0.041375 0.066043 0.107941
2025-11-02 0.005784 0.009559 0.015517 0.025642 0.042521 0.069712 0.117206
2025-11-09 0.005273 0.008934 0.014858 0.025183 0.042846 0.072042 0.124405
2025-11-16 0.004969 0.008624 0.014681 0.025497 0.044465 0.076606 0.135741
2025-11-23 0.004595 0.008167 0.014231 0.025322 0.045262 0.079899 0.145273
2025-11-30 0.004382 0.007974 0.014214 0.025904 0.047441 0.085776 0.159971
2025-12-07 0.003972 0.007388 0.013457 0.025083 0.047001 0.086921 0.166041
2025-12-14 0.003678 0.006990 0.012999 0.024763 0.047441 0.089677 0.175337
2025-12-21 0.003353 0.006504 0.012340 0.024004 0.046976 0.090684 0.181310
2025-12-28 0.003279 0.006491 0.012561 0.024950 0.049876 0.098325 0.201029
2026-01-04 0.003164 0.006388 0.012601 0.025538 0.052110 0.104838 0.219022
2026-01-11 0.003063 0.006304 0.012670 0.026186 0.054511 0.111859 0.238666
2026-01-18 0.002883 0.006042 0.012363 0.026036 0.055248 0.115546 0.251570
2026-01-25 0.002732 0.005830 0.012140 0.026040 0.056304 0.119964 0.266417
2026-02-01 0.002547 0.005530 0.011712 0.025574 0.056307 0.122147 0.276515